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LanczGlobal Does It Again!

Recommended profit taking into 5 year highs in September 2012, only to buy into sell-off in November 2012.

"Taking profits in Apple at $700 makes it a lot easier to buy back at under $400 a share rather than buy and hold." - Alan B. Lancz, 07/02/13 Interview

Squawk on the Street 7-2-13

Into 2011's strength, LanczGlobal recommended partial profit taking and getting more defensive. This garnered national recognition from PBS's The Nightly Business Report. Watch Alan Lancz, LanczGlobal's director of research, latest interviews and results from NBR.

Alan B. Lancz on PBS     Alan B. Lancz on PBS

What Was Your Advisor Telling You in 2007? In 2009? In 2011? And the Start of 2012?

6 Years of Independent Research

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LanczGlobal 2011-2007 Media Highlights

View our national media highlights over the past four years:

LanczGlobal Media Quotes

The Lancz Letter (3/11/11)
The Lancz LetterOver the past thirty years we have actually made the most money, while taking lesser risk, during times like these when we go against the conventional wisdom. It is this preservation of capital emphasis, particularly during market extremes that really makes a difference (mainly because it is so hard to make up for significant losses when investors simply ride the ups and downs of a volatile market).

The Lancz Letter (9/29/10)
The Lancz LetterThe significant elevation of Merger & Acquisition activity last month was one of the main reasons we covered our "short" positions into the sell-off in August. A gradual shift away from the fixed income bandwagon, which has been so prevalent since late 2007, can provide the additional catalyst for an intermediate term rally.

MarketWatch (6/24/10)
MarketWatchI think the economy is growing just not at the pace some investors were thinking a few months ago...Even if we're wrong and the economy does better than we expect, I think into 2011 we'll have some major headwinds including higher taxes, weaning off the stimulus into 2011-2012 and if the economy does do better than we expect, we're going to be facing higher interest rates. All of that will lead to a very tepid recovery.

CNBC (5/7/10)
CNBCThe majority of the earnings growth is based on the financial sector and if financial regulatory reform changes the playing field, then they're going to strike at the heart of the most lucrative segments and these analysts are going to have to change their earnings model. All of a sudden the U.S. stock market doesn't look as cheap as investors thought.

CNN (4/7/10)
CNN MoneyWith such a strong runup, you're going to hit resistance eventually. The market needs a catalyst to get investors to buy at these levels.

CNBC (3/1/10)
CNBCI think that's what we're going to see in 2010. You're going to have these two steps forward, one step back and you have to be a nimble investor and look outside the box to make money in 2010. I don't see significant progress through the balance of the year.

The Lancz Letter (3/10/09)
The Lancz LetterWhat we do know is that much of the risk that we warned about, and was so totally ignored by investors 18 months ago, is now the absolute focal point for nearly every investor. Nobody knows exactly when the bottom will occur until after the fact, but we are feeling comfortable enough to not only remove our "short" positions, but significantly add to our longs. After buying more investment grade corporate bonds last October than anytime in our history, we followed that up by recommending Goldcorp at $15.06 a share shortly thereafter and then made Goldman Sachs at $52.62 a share our top selection for 2009...Now at the time so many investors are totally jumping out, the market is starting to differentiate the winners from the losers. The areas we have been selectively adding to are the same areas we recommended avoiding 12-18 months ago. Energy, healthcare and even technology are looking appealing, but the key word in the initial sentence is "selectively." In other words, someone investing in the S&P 500 or those canned asset allocation programs will still be disappointed in 2009. After all, the S&P 500 is down another 25% YTD after a disastrous 2008. For investors that do not have a solid cash position or that did not take advantage of unprecedented bond yields late last year, it definitely has to be trying times...

The Lancz Letter (2/6/09)
The Lancz Letter...Last October, investment grade corporate bonds were yielding unprecedented income and this combined with gold trading down towards its recent lows presented two golden opportunities. Into the November sell-off, we were so impressed with the bargain valuations of the best financials that we placed Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan in our favorites for the new year. December brought the technology sector into bargain levels and we strongly recommended Apple and Google as they topped the LanczGlobal Current Top Buys after their shares hit daily new lows. So far this year, the higher risk areas into the panic selling have presented select opportunities for the growth oriented investor.

The DJIA hit a market low of 6,443.27 on March 6, 2009, having lost over 54% of its value from the October 9, 2007 high.

Wall Street Transcript (2/2/09)
WSJWe are starting to see some good long-term opportunities. We expect to see 20%-30% moves in both directions this year. What we're telling clients is; when you see the panic selling and the S&P 500 is in the 750 to 800 level, we would recommend accumulating quality companies that are not only well-managed, but also have strong balance sheets with solid cash flow to take advantage of weaker competitors during a challenging global economic environment. On the other hand, I think in 2009 you'll see some rallies.

Bloomberg (1/30/09)
BloombergWhat we are doing now is a lot of the things we warned about a year or eighteen months ago are starting to look appealing just from a valuation standpoint. A year ago we were warning about Google and Apple at $700 and $200 respectively, or even the emerging markets which had an incredible run for five or six years. Google when it gets down under $300 or Apple in the $80-90 or lesser area; whenever you have that panic selling, it's a good time to start nibbling on quality. I think that's where you have to go with the quality. You have winners and losers and the market is starting to differentiate this. Apple had great earnings last week and they are taking advantage of their weaker competitors, and that's what you want. If they can survive now in a bad economic environment, they'll just be that much stronger when we get out of this.

Bloomberg (12/26/08)
BloombergA month ago, we started increasing our financial equity weighting. And, again, [we are] sticking with the high quality. Why take the extra risk . . . . It usually pays to stick with quality and I think that will remain the case with tech, financials, or even corporate bonds like in October. . . . For 09, we're going to have a lot of ups and downs but I think 'play it' as far as buying into panic selling and taking some profits when things outperform.

CNBC (11/28/08)
CNBCA year ago, I think you were taking a lot of risk and not being rewarded for it, Erin. I think now, as of late last week, into that panic selling, there were some tremendous opportunities. Not to say it's a bottom - know one knows, but I just think at those levels, you're getting an attractive yield; you're getting valuations you haven't seen in years and this is the upper echelon, the cream of the crop....You want to buy quality when everything has gone down like it has.

The Lancz Letter (7/2/08)
The Lancz LetterUnfortunately this failure to act will extend and broaden the ripple effects from this credit crisis, which means that investors should continue to maintain a very selective, cautious approach. Rising energy and food costs, the negative wealth effect and plunging consumer confidence all will provide difficult headwinds for equities.

CNBC (6/30/08)
CNBCWe went into 2008 avoiding emerging markets - China, Russia, and India - as well as the financials, and would rather concentrate on high quality global leaders with solid dividends.

Bloomberg (6/1/07)
BloombergIt's smart to start taking some profits and not chase stocks indiscriminately here.

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Disclosure: LanczGlobal LLC is an independent investment research firm. All articles and content are for informational purposes only and are not intended to be a solicitation, offering or recommendation of any security. LanczGlobal LLC does not represent that the securities, products, or services discussed in this publication or within are suitable or appropriate for all investors. All recommendations and analysis constitute an opinion which may change without notice and may or may not prove correct. Readers must make their own independent investment decisions, as past success can not guarantee future results. LanczGlobal LLC or Alan B. Lancz are not affiliated or endorsed by any national media and only acts as an authoritative source of information. Such information does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities or investment vehicles.